Bell and Perrin stand on opposite sides of the circle, rather than on the radius near the center, separated only by insignificant differences.

Bell claims that the surname Caldwell came from the Cold Well Estate near Toulon. Perrin states that the surname derived from the first Caldwell Estate in Scotland.

Bell links the first Caldwell, Alexander, to the Waldenses. Perrin makes no such claim, although he is a noted historian of the Waldenses.

Bell's claims do not pass the test of probability, analogy or correlation. It is not probable that an Estate in southern France or Holy Roman Empire would have the English name, Cold Well. Personal surnames in France and Scotland began in the 11th century (e.g., Peter Waldo), and were near universal by the 14th century, so by analogy it doubtful that three brothers in France or Scotland in the 16th century lacked a surname at birth. Bell provides no facts evidencing an association or correlation between the so-called Cold Well Estate near Toulon and similar use of English place names at other locations near Toulon. In short, Bell offers only a scintilla of evidence, not a compilation of evidence from independent sources that cumulatively make it more probable than not that what he says is true.

Bell did not use methods generally accepted by genealogists to advance claims of such important historical significance. Oral retellings of family lineage may well serve to patch the lacunae in the family tree, but inevitably invite skepticism when they purport to leap centuries back, without any family tree of names, dates, and place, to link present day Caldwells to Apostolic Waldeneses.

Perrin's narration sticks fairly close to a family tree that could be tested and has independently been verified, linking John Caldwell of Cub Creek Virginia, and his grandson John C. Calhoun, to Alexander Caldwell of Scotland. Records of the LDS Family Library show a Caldwell Estate near Annan, Scotland, adjacent to Solway Firth. Bell's claims are not testable, since nothing in writing by the itinerant Waldeneses is known to exist and no known genealogical family tree exists.

While I see a particularized bias in Bell's work, I am not suggesting that Bell and Gustave Anjou are of the same cloth. Anjou falsified documents and deliberately interwove family lineages in a quest to satisfy his wealthy patrons. Bell is publishing a book for public sale, where the financial link to the prospective Caldwell purchasers was attenuated rather than closely connected. He may simply have been motivated to tell what he had learned that he thought would be of interest to his anticipated audience -- a rather benign and common motivation of nearly all authors.

Perrin's book has not engendered the controversy that surrounds Bell's narration, but neither discusses alternate possibilities to the idea that the Caldwell surname originated with the arrival of the three brothers from Toulon.

Perrin and Bell overlooked the Mure of Caldwell Estate near Uplawmoor, successor to the 14th century Caldwell Estate, and the widespread existence of Caldwell placenames throughout England preceding the Norman Invasion of 1066. I delved into the latter origins in my article about the "anglo-saxons origins" of the caldwell place-name.

Consequently Perrin and Bell's stories can be faulted for not making a differential diagnosis. In an analagous situation, where a physician confronts a patient with non-specific signs and symptoms consistent with more than disease, he makes a clinical judgment -- the art of practising medicine -- so he can get on with deciding the course of treatment, rather than deferring the decision, in a quest for scientific certainty. The clinical judgment requires an evaluation the evidence pro and con in an effort to optimize the likelihood of a favorable outcome. In a court of law his diagnosis is treated as a mere conclusion, subject to be stricken or rendered inadmissible unless he can show how he made a differtial diagnosis that ruled out as less likely the alternate possibilities.

I can understand why no such differential diagnosis was made. When Perrin published his book in 1887, the Mure of Caldwell Estate was in decline, and for most purposes, off the map and out of mind. It was soon to be converted to a psychiatric institution. It was not until 1890 that a portion of Neilston Parish would be renamed Caldwell Parish.
As John Caldwell and Barry Robertson have pointed out, the hamlet of Caldwell had ceased to exist, at least as a post office address, although its former location is still shown on some maps even to this date.

By the time Bell published his book in 1927, the Caldwell Parish had come into existence, but that fact would be rather obscure. Barry Robertson posted here a really well researched story on the origins of the Caldwell name for the Caldwell Parish Church and adjacent Mure of Caldwell Estate, entitlled "Caldwell Mystery," citing documents available to but overlooked by Perrin and Bell. Barry lives in Scotland, in a far better position to explore the originations of the Caldwell name.

In my mind, Barry Robertson's account is the most compelling.